To evaluate the impact of drought on agriculture in N. Korea, SPI (standardized precipitation index) analysis was carried out by utilizing time-series precipitation data during 1996 – 2003 when severe drought occurred throughout the country. The SPI value was estimated to reach 12 in approximately 60% of the total period, indicating that agricultural productivity deteriorated rapidly due to the long-term drought. The national average drought cycle, based on SPI 12, was estimated as 32.5 months for the last 40 years. However, when examined on 20-year basis, the drought cycle was shortened by 10.6 months in last 20 years (30.3 months) as compared to previous 20 years (40.9 months). Annual crop production continued to increase mainly in rice and maize until the mid-1990s, but declined sharply thereafter due to the drought. After the drought period, the production of potatoes of which growth is more resistant to drought started to increase to the production level comparable to those of rice and soybean. It is expected that changes in the agricultural production environment in N. Korea will be inevitable due to the climate change. To this end, using the results of the drought cycle analysis, it is possible to analyze the changes in the agricultural production environment in N. Korea in the future.

Keywords: Drought, SPI, Drought cycle, Agriculture, N. Korea