• Impact of Climate Change on the Groundwater Recharge and Groundwater Level Variations in Pyoseon Watershed of Jeju Island, Korea
  • Shin, Esther;Koh, Eun-Hee;Ha, Kyoochul;Lee, Eunhee;Lee, Kang-Kun;
  • Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources;School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University;Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources;Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources;School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University;
  • 기후 변화에 따른 제주도 표선 유역의 함양률 및 수위변화 예측
  • 신에스더;고은희;하규철;이은희;이강근;
  • 한국지질자원연구원 지구환경본부 지하수연구실;서울대학교 지구환경과학부;한국지질자원연구원 지구환경본부 지하수연구실;한국지질자원연구원 지구환경본부 지하수연구실;서울대학교 지구환경과학부;
Abstract
Global climate change could have an impact on hydrological process of a watershed and result in problems with future water supply by influencing the recharge process into the aquifer. This study aims to assess the change of groundwater recharge rate by climate change and to predict the sustainability of groundwater resource in Pyoseon watershed, Jeju Island. For the prediction, the groundwater recharge rate of the study area was estimated based on two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) by using the Soil Water Balance (SWB) computer code. The calculated groundwater recharge rate was used for groundwater flow simulation and the change of groundwater level according to the climate change was predicted using a numerical simulation program (FEFLOW 6.1). The average recharge rate from 2020 to 2100 was predicted to decrease by 10~12% compared to the current situation (1990~2015) while the evapotranspiration and the direct runoff rate would increase at both climate scenarios. The decrease in groundwater recharge rate due to the climate change results in the decline of groundwater level. In some monitoring wells, the predicted mean groundwater level at the year of the lowest water level was estimated to be lower by 60~70 m than the current situation. The model also predicted that temporal fluctuation of groundwater recharge, runoff and evapotranspiration would become more severe as a result of climate change, making the sustainable management of water resource more challenging in the future. Our study results demonstrate that the future availability of water resources highly depends on climate change. Thus, intensive studies on climate changes and water resources should be performed based on the sufficient data, advanced climate change scenarios, and improved modeling methodology.

Keywords: Jeju Island;Climate change;SWB;Groundwater recharge;FEFLOW;

References
  • 1. Ahn, S.R., Park, M.J., Park, G.A, and Kim, S.J, 2009, Assessing future climate change impact on hydrologic components of gyeongancheon watershed, J. Korea Water Resour. Assoc., 42(1), 33-50.
  •  
  • 2. Ahn, S.S., Lee, S.I., and Oh, Y.H, 2012, Estimation of long-term groundwater recharge considering land-cover condition & rainfall condition (focusing on seogwipo), J. Korean Geo-Environ. Soc., 13(7), 39-47.
  •  
  • 3. Allen, R.G. and Pruitt, W.O., 1986, Rational use of the FAO Blaney-Criddle formula, J. Irrig. Drain. Eng., 122(2), 139-155.
  •  
  • 4. Blaney, H.F. and Criddle, W.D., 1966, Determining consumptive use for water developments, in Methods for Estimating Evapotranspiration-Irrigation and Drainage Specialty Conference, November 2-4, Las Vegas, Nev., Proceedings: New York, American Society of Civil Engineers, p. 1-34.
  •  
  • 5. Choi, H.M., Lee, J.Y., Ha, K.C, and Kim, G.P, 2011, The study on time series analysis of groundwater data and groundwater recharge in Jeju Island, J. Eng. Geol., 21(4), 337-348.
  •  
  • 6. Chung, I.M., Kim, N.W., and Lee, J.W, 2010, Assessing distributed groundwater recharge rate using integrated surface watergroundwater modelling: application to Mihocheon watershed, South Korea, Hydrogeol. J., 18(5), 1253-1264.
  •  
  • 7. Diersch, H.J.G, 2010, FEFLOW 6-User's Manual, WASY GmbH, Berlin. 172 p.
  •  
  • 8. Eckhardt, K. and Ulbrich, U., 2003, Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and streamflow in a central European low mountain rage, J. Hydrol., 284(1-4), 244-252.
  •  
  • 9. Goderniaux, P., Brouyere, S., Fowler, H.J, Blenkinsop, S., Therrien, R., Orban, P., and Dassargues, A., 2009, Large scale surface-subsurface hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on groundwater reserves, J. Hydrol., 373(1-2), 122-138.
  •  
  • 10. Hargreaves, G.H. and Samani, Z.A., 1985, Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature, Appl. Eng. Agric., 1(2), 96-99.
  •  
  • 11. IPCC, 2014, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland 151 p.
  •  
  • 12. Jeju Special Self-Governing Province, 2013, Jeju Special Self-Governing Province Water Resources Management, Jeju Special Self-Governing Province, 364 p.
  •  
  • 13. Jensen, M.E. and Haise, R.H., 1963, Estimating evapotranspiration from solar radiation, J. Irrig. Drain. Div., 89, 15-41.
  •  
  • 14. KIGAM, 2011a, An Assessment of water Development in Jeju, Korea, 107 p.
  •  
  • 15. KIGAM, 2011b, Assessment of sustainable groundwater availability and development of high value added groundwater in Jeju Island, 591 p.
  •  
  • 16. Kim, B.S., Hamm, S.Y., Lee, C.M., Ok, S.I., Cha, E.J., and Ko, Y.S., 2011, Features of regional hydrogeology and groundwater distribution of volcanic rocks in Jeju Island, J. Geol. Soc. Korea, 47(3), 263-276.
  •  
  • 17. KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), 2016, Climate Data (1990-2015), www.kma.go.kr. (Cited 2 May 2016)
  •  
  • 18. Koh, G.W., 1997, Characteristics of the groundwater and hydrogeologic implication of the Seoquipo formation in Cheju Island, Ph.D. Thesis, Busan National University, 325 p.
  •  
  • 19. Koo, M.H. and Lee, D.H., 2002, A numerical analysis of the water level fluctuation method for quantifying groundwater recharge, J. Geol. Soc. Korea, 38(3), 407-420.
  •  
  • 20. Lee, B.J., Goo, M.H., Park, Y.S., Goh, G.W., and Park, K.H., 2006, Hydraulic diffusivity and possibility of conduit-flow of groundwater in eastern part of Jeju islnad, J. Geol. Soc. Korea, 42(3), 439-454.
  •  
  • 21. Lee, M.J., Lee, J.H., Jeon, S.W., and Houng, H.J., 2010, Review of policy direction and coupled model development between groundwater recharge quantity and climate change, J. Environ. Policy, 9(2), 157-184.
  •  
  • 22. Lee, J.M., Park, Y.S., Jung, Y.H., Cho, J.P., Yang, J.E., Lee, G.J., Kim, K.S., and Lim K.J., 2014, Analysis of spatiotemporal changes in groundwater recharge and baseflow using SWAT and BFlow models, J. Korean Soc. Water Environ., 30(5), 549-558.
  •  
  • 23. Mair, A., Hagedorn, B., Tillery, S., El-Kadi, A., Westenbroek, S., Ha, K., and Koh, G.W., 2013, Temporal and spatial variability of groundwater recharge of Jeju Island, Korea, J. Hydrol., 501(25), 213-226.
  •  
  • 24. MOLIT, 2011, Basic groundwater management plan of Korea (2012-2021), 156 p.
  •  
  • 25. Moon, S.K. and Woo, N.C., 2001, Estimation of groundwater recharge ratio using cumulative precipitation and water-level change, Korea, J. Soil Groundw. Environ., 6(1), 33-43.
  •  
  • 26. Raposo, J.R., Dafonte, J., and Molinero, J., 2013, Assessing the impact of future climate change on groundwater recharge in Galicia-Costa, Spain, Hydrogeol. J., 21(2), 459-479.
  •  
  • 27. Scibek, J. and Allen, D.M., 2006, Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels, Water Resour. Res., 42, W11405.
  •  
  • 28. Song, S.H., Lee, G.S., An, J.G., Jeon, S.G., and Yi, M.J., 2015, Groundwater modeling for estimating water balance over pyosun watershed in Jeju Island, Korea, J. Environ. Sci. Int., 24(4), 495-504.
  •  
  • 29. Thornthwaite, C.W. and Mather, J.R., 1957, Instructions and tables for computing potential evapotranspiration and the water balance: Centerton, N.J., Laboratory of Climatology, Publications Climatology, 10(3), 185-311.
  •  
  • 30. Turc, L., 1961, Evaluation des besoins en eau d'irrigation, evapotranspiration potentielle, formule climatique simlifee et mise a jour (In French; original unseen): Annales Agronomiques, 12(1), 13-49.
  •  
  • 31. WAMIS (Water Management Information System), 2016, www.wamis.go.kr (Cited 10 May 2016)
  •  
  • 32. Westenbroek, S.M., Kelson, V.A., Dripps, W.R., Hunt, R.J., Bradbury, and K.R., 2010, SWB-A Modified Thornthwaite-Mather Soil-Water-Balance Code for Estimating Groundwater Recharge: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods 6-A31, Reston, 60 p.
  •  
  • 33. Woo, N.C., 2013, Climate change and groundwater sustainability in Korea for next decade, J. Soil Groundw. Environ., 18(1), 1-5.
  •  

This Article